Sure I’ve written that headline before, but so what? It’s probably the most salient political comment voiced by anyone since WWII. And it’s what I’ve been saying to a lot of middle-class grumblers who seem to have signed up to some myth that David Cameron will waltz past Gordon Brown at the next election, swept into No. 10 on a cloud of pink fwuffy wabbits and good feeling.
Nice, then, of Polly Toynbee to articulate why this belief is such profound, utter bollocks:
Why isn’t Labour doing worse? It’s the economy, stupid. Look at Ipsos Mori’s end of year assessment and it is the one issue where Labour gallops a mile ahead. People are secure in work in the most prolonged growth since records began, while every day the papers predict next year’s house price rise at 7%, 10% or 15%. That means 70% of the population gloats daily over their rising wealth and good luck their parents never dreamed of. This is the true national lottery - and all home owners are winners.
Thus Gordon Brown personally is well ahead of the three party leaders as “doing a good job”. Blair’s rating is -34, Cameron is -5 and Campbell -9. The Cameron myth has cracks: he is not scoring well with women, and he is only ahead on traditional Tory turf - tax, crime, asylum; leading a little on health is his one break with tradition.
Something else may be at work. Whatever grumbles people dutifully repeat to pollsters, what they see about them everywhere is the effect of Labour’s great burst of public spending. Walk into most schools, clinics or hospitals, wander through any park, look up at public buildings, note the state of the streets, the number of visible police, wardens, cleaners, buses (in London and now soon everywhere), and compare it with the public squalor of 10 years ago. There are enough voters who will not want to see spending cut again. They may be angry with Labour - but surprisingly, they are not all that angry. All now depends on what Brown brings to the premiership - but as this bad year ends, Labour still has remarkably solid foundations to build on.
Frankly, given the war, given the NHS, given transport and given the emerging market-driven dogma in education, Blair should be handing Brown a poisoned, peevish legacy. He’s not. And this is perhaps the political genius of Our Gordon, or perhaps just a kind of dumb luck - the things that he’s pushed through, the public investment, the moderate redistribution of wealth, the fiscal prudence, are the foundations on which Blair has built his modernist, Tyler Brulee political edifice. But, as someone said on Ramsey’s Kitchen Nightmares (my current favourite political and business text) this week, if you’ve got a good foundation, you can rebuild the house. And because Blair’s house has such very thin walls, it’s actually going to be moderately easy to rebuild. Although this time without the Britart and the maps of the Middle East, please Gordon.
As for Cameron, here’s my bet: Brown will increase Labour’s majority at the next election, Cameron will get some heavyweights in and maybe have a decent run next time. He’s a clever guy, but he’s not Blair. And George Osborne is a gazillion miles away from being Gordon Brown. The great thing about British politics is that, almost without exception, the guy who can actually run the country will win the election, unless (as in 1992) there are two guys running who can’t run the country, at which point the electorate will stick with the devil they know. Bring on 2009, I say.